ALPACA – Amendment of the Methodology for Calculating the Probability of Available Cross-zonal Capacity after Intraday Cross-zonal Gate Closure Time in accordance with Article 33(6) of the EB Regulation

Overview

This consultation concerns the obligatory amendment of the Methodology for Calculating the Probability of Available Cross-zonal Capacity after Intraday Cross-zonal Gate Closure Time ('Methodology') in accordance with Article 33(6) of the Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/2195 of 23 November 2017 Establishing a Guideline on Electricity Balancing as Amended by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/280 of 22 February 2021 ('EB Regulation').

The already approved Methodology requires that: 'By no more than one year after the first application day of the Probabilistic Method all TSOs who apply the Probabilistic Method shall submit an amendment to this proposal describing the forecasting tool(s) described in Article 4(5). This amendment shall specify at least:

• A description of the algorithm used by each forecasting tool pursuant to Article 4(5).
• A description of input data which the algorithm used by each forecasting tool pursuant to Article 4(5) shall use but is not limited to.'

ALPACA TSOs (50Hertz, Amprion, APG, ČEPS, TenneT TSO GmbH and TransnetBW) started to use the Probabilistic Method on AT-CZ and CZ-DE borders on 3rd September 2025. The description of the forecasting tools in line with the Methodology was published on project website on 30th July 2025. Now ALPACA TSOs intend to amend the Methodology with the required descriptions.

Why your views matter

ALPACA TSOs are seeking input and feedback from relevant stakeholders, market participants and NRAs for the Methodology for Calculating the Probability of Available Cross-zonal Capacity after Intraday Cross-zonal Gate Closure Time.