ENTSO-E and ENTSOG TYNDP 2026 Scenarios Economic Variants Development Methodology – Draft for public consultation

Overview

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG invite all interested stakeholders to take part in the public consultation on the Draft 2026 TYNDP Scenarios’ Economic Variants’ methodology from 1 July until 29 July.  

Important note: This is a separate consultation running in parallel to the ongoing public consultation on the input data and other methodologies on the Draft 2026 TYNDP Scenarios, which is open from 16 June until 14 July. ENTSOG and ENTSO-E welcome stakeholders' input on both consultations, accessible via the Consultation Hub.  

The TYNDP 2026 Scenarios aim at providing a sound basis to develop a European infrastructure that is fit for purpose. The Scenarios will be built in line with European Union policy targets, reflecting the latest updated national energy and climate plans (NECPs), national and EU policies and taking into account the latest available data at the time. TSOs’ data reflecting NECPs and national and EU policies have been collected with a cut-off date of 24th December 2024.

In previous cycles, the Scenario framework included a bottom-up Central Scenario (NT+) alongside two top-down Scenarios—Distributed Energy (DE) and Global Ambition (GA)—which illustrated alternative decarbonisation pathways toward 2050. Under the new ACER Scenario Framework Guidelines, this structure has been streamlined: the Central Scenario remains the core reference aligned with EU policy goals, while the DE and GA top-down Scenarios have been replaced by high and low economic variants that serve as stress tests rather than distinct long-term trajectories. The following section summarises the framework upon which the new Scenarios are based: 

Central Scenario: National Trends+ 

The Central Scenario, called National Trends+ (NT+), reflects the latest updated NECPs. If the datasets are not available in the NECPs, it can be complemented by national planning and strategies, as well as the national strategies of non-EU countries. The National Trends+ Scenario aligns with the EU’s latest climate and energy targets and will be developed for the 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050 time horizons. If the aggregated TSO data doesn’t align with the EU’s latest climate and energy targets, a gap filling methodology is implemented.  

High and low economic variants 

The higher and lower economy variants will be developed for the 2035 (medium) and 2040 (long-term) target years only, as stated by the ACER Scenarios Framework Guidelines. These economic variants will serve as a stress test to the National Trends+ Scenario and will be developed based on the Central Scenario methodology, which does not require additional data collection from TSOs. The economic variants methodology will be consulted on 4 July in a specific session in the public workshop, as the establishment of this new approach requires substantial awareness and discussion.  

In this public consultation, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG now invite all stakeholders to participate in the public consultation on the methodology for building the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios’ Economic Variants. Stakeholders are invited to provide their feedback by 29 July 2025. 

Consultation package 

In accordance with Article 12 of (EU) 2022/869 (TEN-E Regulation), the public consultation and stakeholder engagement represents a significant milestone for the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios, designed to present an overview of all preliminary data sets, their demand and supply assumptions as well as the modelling methodologies prior to finalisation.  

In addition to the consultation, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG will hold a public workshop on 4 July 2025.  This public workshop will include a dedicated session for the draft economic variants methodology to thoroughly determine the first-time economic variants methodology. Registration to the public workshop on 4 July is possible here. 

The consultation package includes the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios Economic Variants Development Methodology – Draft for consultation, accessible here. 

More information on the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios, including the Consultation Package, Innovation Roadmap and stakeholder engagement activities, can be found on the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios website.