ENTSO-E and ENTSOG public consultation on the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios’ input assumptions, data, parameters and methodologies

Overview

The TYNDP 2026 Scenarios aim at providing a sound basis to develop a European infrastructure that is fit for purpose. The Scenarios will be built in line with European Union policy targets, reflecting the latest updated national energy and climate plans (NECPs), national and EU policies and taking into account the latest available data at the time.

In previous cycles, the Scenario framework included a bottom-up Central Scenario (NT+) alongside two top-down Scenarios—Distributed Energy (DE) and Global Ambition (GA)—which illustrated alternative decarbonisation pathways toward 2050. Under the new ACER Scenario Framework Guidelines, this structure has been streamlined: the Central Scenario remains the core reference aligned with EU policy goals, while the DE and GA top-down Scenarios have been replaced by high and low economic variants that serve as stress tests rather than distinct long-term trajectories. The following section summarises the framework upon which the new Scenarios are based: 

Central Scenario: National Trends+ 

The Central Scenario, called National Trends+ (NT+), reflects the latest updated NECPs. If the datasets are not available in the NECPs, it can be complemented by national planning and strategies, as well as the national strategies of non-EU countries. The National Trends+ Scenario aligns with the EU’s latest climate and energy targets and will be developed for the 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050 time horizons.  

High and low economic variant 

The higher and lower economy variants will be developed for the 2035 and 2040 target years only, as stated by the ACER Scenarios Framework Guidelines. These economic variants will serve as a stress test to the National Trends+ Scenario and will be developed based on the Central Scenario methodology, which does not require additional data collection from TSOs. The economic variants methodology will be consulted on 4 July in a specific session in the public workshop, as the establishment of this new approach requires substantial awareness and discussion.  

In order to effectively develop the required future European energy demand and supply forecasts, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG rely on data sets provided by their member organisations, academic research and stakeholder feedback. Therefore, ENTSO-E and ENTSOG now invite all stakeholders to participate in the public consultation on the draft input data and methodologies of the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios. This consultation covers all draft input assumptions, data sets, parameters and associated methodologies, except the economic variant methodology which will be shared in a separate engagement process. Your feedback is crucial in ensuring that the Scenarios are comprehensively aligned with the latest EU climate targets and practical demand and supply forecasts. Stakeholders are therefore invited to provide their feedback by 14 July 2025. 

Consultation package 

In accordance with Article 12 of (EU) 2022/869 (TEN-E Regulation), the public consultation and stakeholder engagement represents a significant milestone for the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios, designed to present an overview of all preliminary data sets, their demand and supply assumptions as well as the modelling methodologies prior to finalisation.  

In addition to the consultation, ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will hold a public workshop on 4 July 2025.  This public workshop will include a dedicated session for the draft economic variants methodology to thoroughly determine the first-time economic variants methodology. 

The consultation package includes: 

1. TSOs’ data reflecting NECPs and national and EU policies – provided for informational purposes (link), including: 

• ETM Dashboards illustrating energy demand breakdowns by carrier and sector 

• ETM Links including country and sector specific energy demand inputs 

• SMR and pyrolysis capacities 

• PEMMDB 2.5. illustrating electricity generation and flexibility capacities 

• Additional Data Collection supplementary supply and demand datasets 

2. Draft Supply assumptions (link): 

• Commodity Prices 

• H2 and ammonia import potentials 

• Import prices for synthetic fuels 

• Technology costs 

3. Draft Market Modelling methodologies – including relevant assumptions (link) 

4. Draft Target Compliance and Gap filling methodologies (link) 

5. Draft carbon budget methodology (link) 

6. Draft Scenarios Grid methodology (link) 

7. Draft Scenario weather year selection methodology (link) 

8. Scenarios Innovation Roadmap (link) 

More information on the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios, including the Consultation Package, Innovation Roadmap and stakeholder engagement activities, can be found on the TYNDP 2026 Scenarios website.