Mid term adequacy forecast (MAF 2016) Consultation

Overview

The MAF 2016 presents the first Pan-European probabilistic assessment of adequacy. While market-based probabilistic modelling approaches have already been adopted in some national generation adequacy studies and the PLEF regional adequacy assessment, this is the first time such studies have been conducted at the Pan-European level. This represents a significant analytical achievement. Moreover, this has involved extensive collaborative effort of representatives from TSOs covering the whole Pan-European area under the coordination of ENTSO-E.  

This new approach in MAF 2016 is in line with the EC Electricity Coordination Group (ECG) which asked ENTSO-E to update their adequacy methodology and assessments to better account for the risks to security of supply and the need for flexibility as the Pan-European power system moves towards higher levels of renewable energy sources (RES). These improved assessments should also help highlighting the contribution of electricity interconnectors to national adequacy at times of potential scarcity.

The currently consulted MAF 2016 can be downloaded from here along with the associated data.

The overview of all the consultation’s questions can be downloaded from here.

Why your views matter

ENTSO-E consults its Mid-Term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) assessment (previously referred as SO&AF), as part of the process to fulfil Regulation (EC) 714/2009 legal requirements

The importance and increased relevance of the forecasts provided by MAF, as input regarding the establishment of countermeasures by relevant stakeholders (e.g. Member State authorities, policy makers, regulatory agencies, energy producers) in order to ensure the desired adequacy levels, requires a wide consultation of all relevant Stakeholder.

What happens next

ENTSO-E welcomes interaction with stakeholders to further improve their adequacy assessments and methodologies. Feedback from the consultation will be considered to:

• improve the principles set out by ENTSO-E for a common and consistent data collection and for the preparation and publication of the next MAF 2017 report
• improve the methodology used by ENTSO-E in their reports
• update the MAF 2016 report (where needed and under particular circumstances).